New Madrid – Is The Big One Coming?

Once upon a time, our continent almost divided along the New Madrid fault.  Of course that didn’t happen, but a massive scar formed deep underground, and this area of weakness has remained ever since.

This relative weakness is important, because it would allow the relatively small east-west compressive forces associated with the continuing continental drift of the North American plate to reactivate old faults around New Madrid, making the area unusually prone to earthquakes in spite of it being far from the nearest tectonic plate boundary.

The New Madrid seismic zone of southeast Missouri and adjacent States is the most seismically active in North America east of the Rockies. During the winter of 1811-1812 three very large earthquakes devastated the area and were felt throughout most of the Nation. They occurred a few weeks apart on December 16, January 23, and February 7. Hundreds of aftershocks, some severely damaging by themselves, continued for years. Prehistoric earthquakes similar in size to those of 1811-1812 occurred in the middle 1400’s and around 900 A.D.

Strong, damaging earthquakes struck the southwestern end of the seismic zone near Marked Tree, Arkansas in 1843 (magnitude 6.3), and the northeastern end near Charleston, Missouri in 1895 (magnitude 6.6). Since 1900, moderately damaging earthquakes have struck the seismic zone every few decades. Now, just over the last six months, southeast Missouri, Tennessee, western Kentucky, and Arkansas have seen dozens of earthquakes, all in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. These swarms of earthquakes are raising concerns that a big one could be in the offing. Thursday (Aug.24, 2017) a magnitude 2.7 was registered near Marston, Mo. Just a week earlier (Aug 18, 2017), a 3.2 magnitude was recorded near the same location.

Since Friday August 18, 2017, no less than 11 small earthquakes have been recorded along the fault. Every year there are hundreds of small earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. The USGS points to this ongoing seismicity as a cause for concern, even raising the threat level for 2016 after an uptick in rumbling. The NMSZ is the only one of the five identified areas that has not experienced induced earthquake activity caused by a manmade process called fracking. The NMSZ had a higher rate of natural earthquakes in the past three years, leading to a slightly higher hazard potential compared to previous years in portions of Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee. These swarms of small earthquakes do very little of anything, however, they do act as a reminder of the danger lurking along and beneath the Mississippi River…the dreaded New Madrid Fault.

Another series of Quakes all centered on the New Madrid fault occurred back in May. The ground shook across portions of at least three states, back on May 17th, after a magnitude 3.2 quake struck directly underneath the Mississippi River just west of Bardwell, Ky. A big Hollywood blockbuster was named after the San Andreas Fault, but the truth is that the New Madrid fault has the potential to do vastly more damage. That is why what happened in a remote section of western Kentucky near Bardwell this past week is so alarming…Quite often, there are “foreshocks” that warn us that a major earthquake is coming to a particular area, and many are wondering if this event qualifies. In our time, the U.S. Geological Survey has admitted that the New Madrid fault zone has the “potential for larger and more powerful quakes than previously thought,” and we have seen the number of significant earthquakes in the middle part of the country more than quintuple in recent years.

If a magnitude 7 or magnitude 8 earthquake were to strike along the New Madrid fault today, the damage that would be done would be absolutely unimaginable because of the nature of the Earth’s crust in this region.  According to the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, earthquakes along the New Madrid fault “shake and damage an area approximately 20 times larger than earthquakes in California”… In 2009, the Mid-America Earthquake Center at the University of Illinois released a report simulating the fallout from another 1811-1812-style earthquake in a region that today includes Memphis, St. Louis, Nashville, and a Mississippi River lined with industry, people, and levees. Nearly 715,000 buildings are damaged in the eight-state study region. About 42,000 search and rescue personnel working in 1,500 teams are required to respond to the earthquakes. Damage to critical infrastructure (essential facilities, transportation, and utility lifelines) is substantial in the 140 impacted counties near the rupture zone, including 3,500 damaged bridges and nearly 425,000 breaks and leaks to both local and interstate pipelines.

Approximately 2.6 million households are without power after the earthquake. You’re looking at 100,000 dead 300,000 injured and 7 million or more homeless in a quake below 8.0. What that will do to our country is the kind of stuff that apocalyptic novels are written about. Scientists tell us that the New Madrid fault is about 30 years overdue for a major event, and because of the nature of the Earth’s crust in that part of the country, a major earthquake would do significant damage all the way to the east coast. But there is still no way to know when the big one might occur. So don’t panic over this. The best thing we can do is prepare similar to what we did as the eclipse approached except on a long term basis. Feel free to comment on this post and be sure to hit the “Like” button at the end.

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