We are in the last full week of June and the first full week of summer. But we have been in a summer like pattern since the first of May. Now, as we get ready to enter July, the heat isn’t going to get any better. Actually, it will get worse. Several models are indicating a heat wave will build in for much of the eastern U.S. at least up to and maybe beyond the Fourth of July.A sultry, hot and muggy air mass will be well in charge of our weather making it pretty miserable out there. Chances for thunderstorms will diminish during that time so it may get a little dry. 
Heat index readings will reach the 105 to 110 degree range. This means an elevated danger for heat related illnesses, especially for those spending a lot of time outdoors. The big question is how long the heat ridge will remain in place. The models become diverse on that with some having it continuing into at least the first of August. It will be interesting to see if any cold fronts can get through our area in July since that may be a clue of what will happen in August. We are also under an El Nino watch for the formation of an El Nino in the Pacific Ocean as early as late fall. That will have implications as we go into fall and early winter. Generally, an El Nino means our region will be colder than usual and drier going into winter. I am also watching the tropics for any signs of tropical development. So far, other than the tropical storm back in May, things have been quiet. 
There are indications it may pick up a little in July and even more so in August. Storms from the tropics can also help diffuse the heat that is expected over the region. So there are a lot of working pieces to this weather puzzle. My gut tells me that a cold front may get through towards the last week of July. But heat will build back in early August. Depending on what the tropics do I don’t think the heat in August will be as pronounced as it was in July. By September, it looks to me like we will start making a good transition into a fall pattern with less humidity and cooler temperatures. This is my best guess as it stands now with the information I have available. I am sure there will be some changes to this outlook as time progresses and some of the questions receive answers. Here is another tidbit for you to chew on for a while. Are you one of the millions of people who struggle to sleep well at night? Does your mind spin with thoughts and worries you can’t turn off?
When you wake up in the night do you struggle to fall back asleep? Weather has a lot to do with that. How many really like a cool room with an extra blanket to be able to sleep well? As summer and the sweltering hot weather approaches, sleep problems become much more common in America. I received an email the other day that I found interesting concerning sleep. Apparently this company called Mattress Review and a related company called Sleepopolis did a bunch of research on data from the last 30 years of weather data to identify (statistically) when each state will experience the most uncomfortable conditions to get a good night’s sleep, based on a combination of the hottest overnight temperature, the number of hours of sunlight in the day, and the probability of high humidity. 
According to what they found, the most uncomfortable night’s sleep in Kentucky is to be expected on the July 12th 2018. They came up with this by combining the average warmest night of the year (July 21st at 68F); the date with the highest probability of high humidity (July 24th, 65% of the day); and the longest day of the year (June 21st with 890 minutes of sunlight), and then averaged these three dates together to reveal July 12th as the worst night’s sleep of the year. Now, whoever stopped to think of this certainly comes from a higher pay grade than me. It is interesting though. By the way, those in Tennessee will have their worst night’s sleep on July 11th. I can’t wait for fall.
